Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Diving Into A New Market

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An
Article by Kenneth Harney in the Washington Post & L.A. Times speaks of the dip in the Real Estate Market having "run it's course". This is more support for the soft landing philosophy of the market conditions, and this article sent the bubble bloggers straight to their keyboards to fire up their blog posting software, and dump some keywords out into search engines that mention "bubble, crash, doom, mayhem". That ultimately results in the Bubble Back Pedal where the bubble bloggers have to immediately counter any neutral or positive news with graphs, charts, and more banter.

In this market, I have boots on the ground, I'm seeing the deals that are being made everywhere.

Jim Cronin, mentions that "If it bleeds, it leads" basically indicating the decline of the use of the term "Housing Bubble" even when it comes to blogs. He explains how as a concept, the bubble is even being talked about less. As Ken Harney in the Washington Post mentioned, the bubble fear has "run it's course".

Where is the market going, now that the bubblespeak is irrelevant? Easy, it's headed for, hold on, brace yourself normality. To some that may be a withering disappointment, but to others it will most likely be the signal that the P has left the ool, and it is ok to go swimming in the market again.

Of course, this means no flippers, no wheeler-dealers, just good old fashioned buying and selling where the sellers can't make demands that will drive buyers away, and the buyers will not be able to pitch lowballs that end up becoming grounders.

There will still be people moving into Orange County, despite Jon Lasners' analysis that a single moving truck company's logs suggest some sort of exodus, or even his assertion that canceling of the beloved drama "The OC" spells bad news for real estate. Most of the bubble talk is based on fallacy.

Did people quit moving to Hawaii when Magnum P.I. went off the air?

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Rory Siems

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