Laguna Niguel Real Estate Blog

This week I compiled a comprehensive list of the sales statistics for the current real estate market in Coastal and Southern Orange County. The question I hear most often is, "How is the real estate market going right now?" Which can be most accurately answered like this, "The market is fine, if you're not the one suffering." Of course a statement like that needs to be qualified with a little background information...

While there are fewer homes currently in escrow, I must mention that of the huge number of homes for sale many are still second homes, or listed by sellers who are not at all under pressure to sell. Let's call these the "B Home Seller" because they have a plan B if the home doesn't sell.

Home Seller B:
Why are they for sale now? There are a variety of reasons, but the most common seems to be that they believe that their financial position, and home value are exempt from the need to reduce their price in spite of the downward pressure in the market. For more information, read "Guru says 1/3rd of home sellers are delusional." Delusional seems like much too strong of word and I think that "Unmotivated" is more accurate.



Home Seller A:
There is a category of home seller who is very different from the one I just mentioned above. These are the really motivated sellers. These people cannot get on with their lives until they sell their house. These people are ready to deal, and very often their agent has already convinced them to lower their price at least once. There is a good chance that their price is currently already as low as they can possibly go in their situation. These homes are easy to spot:

1) Most of the time the properties are vacant, but the don't necessarily have to be.
2) Their agent types in all caps on the MLS page "BRING ANY OFFER"
3) They are already priced for a good deal, (not necessarily the cheapest, but definitely the best bang for the buck).
4) The sellers are willing to do a rate buydown, or help with closing costs, and some other ingredient to get the deal done, and the agent mentions this in the MLS or upfront.

These home sellers are the A Home Seller, because they are on the market with their "A Game" and their primary motivation is to sell their house.


The second most asked question: "Is now a good time to buy?"
The answer is this:
It never hurts to search for homes, or go look inside the available listings.
If the home you like is being sold by a "B Seller" and you are buying for an investment, or trying to time the bottom of the market, now is not a good time to buy. Wait until May of 2008, and try to buy the same home like or one like it.

If the home that you like is being sold by an "A Seller" then it is fine to buy now, and try to negotiate the best deal that you can, because they will be willing to deal with you as if it is already the bottom of the market. These sellers need to sell, and their only piece of bad luck is all of the negative press about the real estate market. As the buyer, you can throw them a lifeline, and make a deal, just make sure that this is an "A Seller".

Posted by Rory at 7:05 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Parameters: Single Family Homes > $1,000,000 Listed Price

Newport Beach
Homes For Sale: 331
Homes in Escrow: 22
Homes Sold in the Last 3 Months: 87
Average Time On Market: 93 Days

Corona Del Mar
Homes For Sale: 82
Homes in Escrow: 11
Homes Sold in the Last 3 Months: 23
Average Time On Market: 80 Days

Laguna Beach
Homes For Sale: 248
Homes in Escrow: 13
Homes Sold in the Last 3 Months: 46
Average Time On Market: 104 Days

Laguna Hills
Homes For Sale: 51
Homes in Escrow: 2
Homes Sold in the Last 3 Months: 14
Average Time On Market: 81 Days

Dana Point
Homes For Sale: 162
Homes In Escrow: 15
Homes Sold In the Last 3 Months: 34
Average Time On Market: 122 Days
Laguna Niguel
Homes For Sale: 167
Homes In Escrow: 15
Homes Sold In the Last 3 Months: 31
Average Time On Market: 87 Days

Mission Viejo
Homes For Sale: 160
Homes In Escrow: 15
Homes Sold In the Last 3 Months: 45
Average Time On Market: 94 Days

San Juan Capistrano
Homes For Sale 113
Homes In Escrow: 12
Homes Sold In the Last 3 Months: 25
Average Time On Market: 113 Days

San Clemente
Homes For Sale: 262
Homes In Escrow: 20
Homes Sold In the Last 3 Months: 51
Average Time On Market: 124 Days

Posted by Rory at 6:38 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Here is the background and formula on how to price your home in any market:

1. Make your home the best deal. The best deal doesn't necessarily mean the cheapest. It could mean best value. Remember that the potential buyers of you home are looking for a deal, and when they talk real estate across the back yard fence, they want to prove how savvy they were when they bought your property.

2. Examine the comps and pay attention to the homes that have sat on the market, find out what went wrong with those. Were they overpriced? Were they shabby? Maybe it was really tough for agents to get their clients in to show them.

3. Realize the trade off beween price and time on the market. It doesn't matter if the market is a "Buyers Market" or a "Sellers Market", there is always going to be a trade off between price and the time on the market. Homes priced lower will sell quicker unless there is some charecteristic of the property preventing from selling, like no curb appeal, bad paint, or just simply being in poor condition.


4. Know how to use the price per square foot of the recent sales (comps). Price per square foot is a controversial statistic, because two homes that are identical floorplan, may be in remarkably different condition, therefore price per square foot is less accurate. Likewise things such as landscaping, pool, view, all will offset the price per square foot. Think of it this way, price per square foot gets you in the ballpark; it is still up to you and your agent to find the correct seats and order the hot dogs and cotton candy.

5. Build in the ready expectation to flex. If you price the property at the bare bones price to begin with, realize that people are still going to want to negotiate with you. Look at the listed price vs actual sales price of the recent comps in the area. This will indicate how much the most recent sellers have flexed in their negotiation. You will want to build a similar amount of flex into your price.

6. Use sites like Zillow with caution. I like and appreciate what Zillow does, but at the same time, realize that an automated system for finding home values will not provide you with the necessary information that you can get from a Real Estate Agent who has put their "feet on the ground" of the neighborhood. Real Estate Agents know the ins and outs of the human emotion and decision making of why this or that deal did or did not happen. This is where an automated system isn't going to provide you the necessary depth on a very important point. Again, it gets you to the ball park that's ok, but sooner or later you'll need to sit down and watch the ball game.

Posted by Rory at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Acid Stained Concrete Floors are the most exciting trend that I have seen. This could really threaten the dominance of travertine as the floor covering of choice.
Here is a photo of what the finished product can look like

Image Courtesy of Joe Nasvik from the Concrete Network

The process apparently involves the use of Hydrochloric Acid to open up the surface of the concrete to make it somewhat porous. Stains and colors are then poured into etched areas to fill color into the patterns. After a period of setting the stain, the surface is then buffed to make it smooth again. It looks as if the patterns can get pretty intricate, or likewise can stay simply geometric.

Visit the Concrete Network site to learn more about the process.

Posted by Rory at 6:43 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

In my continued quest to provide useful real estate information to my clients in South Orange County, here is an Open House list for Laguna Niguel. This list is only valid for the weekend of Sept. 22nd- 23rd, 2007. Sometime after that date, the link will expire and become invalid. Should you require a more recent list, please don't hesitate to contact me and let me know.

Along with the list of open houses, keep in mind, that I'm always happy to set you up with a free MLS email notification that keeps you up to date on market activity as it happens.

Say for instance you want to keep your eye on 4 bedroom homes with a pool that are in 2 specific neighborhoods in Dana Point, the notification would first let you know of all of the current matching properties that fit that description. It would then send you an email when something new comes on the market, and finally when a price change occurs, you will likewise be notified.

Posted by Rory at 9:10 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I was at Borders the other day, and picked up my first issue of Laguna Beach magazine. As I leafed through the issue, I was interested at the depth at which the mag explores the life of the LB locals.

No doubt one of the challenges facing the editor is not to reveal all of the great secrets of Laguna in just one issue. After I noticed the story of surfer Donovan Frankenreiter, I realized that the depth to such stories gives the magazine fodder for years to come.

If you haven't seen the magazine yet, I did find that their electronic version as rich in content.

Posted by Rory at 7:54 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The FED and Ben Bernake are making the expected announcement on interest rates today. One thing that today's announcement will not do, is change the overall state of the market. What it may do is just provide enough fuel to encourage the bargian hunter buyers into taking advantage of the widespread price breaks. In general this is most going to effect activity in the $1,200,000 - $2,500,000 range. The reason for this is that lenders are still trying to balance the effects of the credit crunch. This price range basically takes the Alt-a borrowers out of the picture.

The Alt-a borrowers will be the ones struggling to put together larger down payments than before, as well as spending time improving credit scores.

Posted by Rory at 7:13 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

100. Enjoy the Ahi Tuna Caesar Salad at the Renaissance Cafe
99. Rent a Jet Ski or Sea Doo at Dana Point Jet Ski, and Cruise the Harbor
98. Attend the Tall Ships Festival
97. Watch Flock of 80's; 80's music tribute band at Hennesey's
96. Eat a Baja Chicken Wrap at the Fish Bucket.
95. Watch the sunset from the gazebo at the end of Blue Lantern
94. Set a land speed record while you Run the Turkey Trot on Thanksgiving Day
93. Try the coconut shrimp at Harpoon Henry's
92. Surf at Strands Beach
91. Call Me To Check out the very nice homes in the Gated Community of Bal Harbor
90. Get out on a boat for the Dana Point Festival of Whales
89. Learn how to surf at Doheny Beach Park
88. Try out a flight at Purple Feet
87. Learn to SCUBA Dive, and get Certified at Beach Cities SCUBA
86. Eat the massive smothered burrito and watch surfing videos at Taco Surf
85. Have a photo shoot in Lantern Bay Park right next to the Laguna Cliffs Marriott
84. Catch the Catalina Express from the Dana Point Harbor
83. Visit the Ocean Institute
82. Learn how to sail a sail boat with lessons from the Dana Point Yacht Club
81. Buy or Rent a Kayak from Up Sports
80. Get new flip flops and surf gear at Killer Dana.
79. Try Acupuncture at Pacific Acupuncture Center
78. Visit the Pilgrim
77. Eat the Eggs Benedict at Turks
76. Race in the Dana Point Grand Prix
75. Visit the Spa at the St. Regis.
76. Play golf at the Monarch Links Golf Course
75. Watch a Punk Rock band at the Doheny Saloon
74. If you love great food, you'll love Zushi.
73. Have a cocktail at the Ritz Carlton, and watch the surfers and dolphins below at Salt Creek.
72. Call me and view the pristine oceanfront homes next door in Ritz Cove.
71. Enjoy Italian Dining with entertainment and dancing at Brio Tuscany Grill.
70. Stay at the St. Regis and visit the Monarch Bay Club a private resort club on the beach.

69. Have a wicked time at Wicked Garden.
68. Have coffee at the Revo Cycles espresso bar & bike shop.
67. Have the really fresh 1/2 price sushi lunch at Dana Kai sushi bar.
66. Call me to Check out the few remaining homes for sale on the Ocean Side of Niguel Shores between the Ritz Carlton and Dana Point Headlands.
65. Have cocktails at Club 19 inside the St. Regis.
64. Shop the exceptional selection at the jeweler inside the St. Regis.
63. Eat the Ahi Tuna at Salt Creek Grille
62. If you like the Monarch Bay Club and the surrounding neighborhood, call me to see the homes in Monarch Bay.
61. Have a picnic in the grass above Salt Creek beach.
60. Watch the 4th of July fireworks from Pines Park, overlooking Dana Point harbor.
59. Go to the Doheny Blues Festival.
58. How about a round of weight training at the 24 Hour Fitness in the Ocean Ranch shopping center?
57. While you're at it, why not call me to go see the homes in Ocean Ranch?
56. Speaking of Ocean Ranch, if you're entertaining others, a fantastic place to start is Savannah Chop House.
55. The Ocean Ranch center also has a Movie Theatre
54. Catch some fish with Dana Wharf Sportfishing
53. Go whale watching on one of the Dana Harbor boats, the Sum Fun, Dana Pride, Reel Fun, Clemente, which ones am I missing here?
52. Visit the Chart House for an amazing meal, and an even more amazing view.
51. Get your state beach pass at the entrance to Doheny Beach, this allows you to visit all the state beaches.
50. Buy yourself an electric guitar at Danman's music shop.

Do you own or run a business in Dana Point that you'd like to see here? Why not send me an email, to be included in the next 1/2 of "100 Things to Do in Dana Point"? I'll be happy to include your listing.

Posted by Rory at 10:01 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

With Redfin Entering the Orange County Market, I thought that I'd enlighten them to the discussion that has been running for some time, just to bring my readers up to speed.

Remember George from Seinfeld?

Remember his mythical company, "Vandalay Industries" he claimed to have a real huge thing going in imports and exports. His claims proved to be grandstanding. After I read the Redfin blog that covers this market area, I had the same reaction. I have never seen or met a Redfin agent. I have never heard of Redfin selling anything. Much like Jerry and the gang knew that George never actually imported anything.

Enter Redfin, we all remember their expose on 60 minutes? Who could forget, they took almost every opportunity to bash regular real estate agents who handle at least 70%-80% of the business in this area. The idea that the Wisconsin housing market will somehow effect California held my attention like super polydent holds a 60 minutes viewer's teeth in place. Let's not forget that to many Redfin is the hero that solves all the problems addressed in Freakanomics.

Unfortunately Redfin is spread too thin. In addition Redfin is 100% dependent on the very problems in the real estate broker model which they criticize. That is where Redfin falls short on behalf of the consumer and Redfin leaves the consumer to eat the donut from the trash can.

Of course I don't mean to in any way involve the obviously legit Vandalay Industries
in Canada.

Please don't take my observations as gospel on this issue, here are a series of posts by Greg Swann that provide an in-depth analysis of how Redfin is not all it is cracked up to be:

Defending Redfin

What 60 Minutes forgot to tell you.

By far the most revealing and insightful post about what every consumer needs to know about Redfin

Besides Glenn and Bloodhound Blog See also:
Nightmare on kELMan's Street

Inman TV interview with Glen Kelman with 1:34 to go in the video, Glenn reveals the most absurd secret behind Redfin's business model. i.e. He wants people to be able to buy real estate without "having to drive there". Seriously, pictures are good enough.

Welcome to Orange County Redfin.

Posted by Rory at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

It occurred to me that it might be useful to give my website visitors a list of open houses in the cities which I serve. I have done open house announcement posts before, and they were popular.

Here is a list of the open houses this weekend in Laguna Beach. Notice that this is only a partial list. There will be many open houses that don't appear on this list.

The typical times for open house in Laguna Beach are Saturdays and Sundays from 1PM to 4PM. You may find that some are open much earlier, and some stay open later.

Finally, this list corresponds to the 9/15/07-9/16/07 If you would like a list for another weekend, please let me know, and I'll be happy to get one for you.

If you find this post helpful, please let me know by bookmarking with the social bookmarking tools.....

Posted by Rory at 9:18 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Fighting for the right to fly the flag. A Korean War vet faces threats from his HOA that they'll will take away his home for flying the American Flag. The HOA in this case actually threatened to Foreclose, but the court stuffed them back into their cave.

read more | digg story

This story also appears on Fark.com

Posted by Rory at 8:48 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The Wall Street Journal's website for Real Estate, Real Estate Journal brings your the dimension of reporting that you would respect with WSJ on the topic of Real Estate. However, the real estate news on that site seems to be somewhat dated such as: California Coast Defies Housing Slump, not that this is not still true; but you may recall that I broke this news quite some time ago.

You may remember how more than a year and a half ago I wrote a blog post about home builders and the Bad actors of open houses.

It looks like I'm getting my audience the same information as the Wall Street Journal, I'm just getting it up a few months ahead of time.

Maybe that's why the WSJ likes me so much.

Posted by Rory at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

World Trade Center, Towers of Light Tribute

Posted by Rory at 8:22 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I just read this article on the Yahoo real estate section titled "Realtors predict drop in 2007 home sales."

Apparently anything that NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun says, is a signal to the AP writer Alan Ziebel that all Realtors think this same thing. In case you're wondering, you can catch what Mr. Yun said in the full context from his Real Estate forecast.

Should we still be worried about making predictions about the 2007 market in Q3? Isn't more relevant to put a forecast that looks into 2008 into the AP Business wire? Just a thought.

For More Nationwide, Please See:
Lawrence Yun Discussion at Property Smack
Money and Such gives the broader financial/economic perspective.
Fear and Loathing in the Mortgage Market
The Long Overdue Mention of Pent up Demand in St. Louis.

Posted by Rory at 11:32 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post