Laguna Niguel Real Estate Blog

I wish that I made a time capsule of the market in 2004 that I could open now to see the difference in attitudes toward Real Estate

The current market vs the market of yesteryear
Buyers refuse to buy because prices are not low enough
Prices are lower than the market of yesteryear

1/3 of Sellers are delusional about their price.
Sellers long for the market of yesteryear

Only real qualified buyers are allowed to make offers
Anyone who could fog a mirror was qualified to buy a home in the market of yesteryear.

No weird refinancing graphics appear from LowerMyBills

In this market Ditech now claims that the last people who still didn't use their service are "smart" with their "People are Smart" ad campaign. This is a major turnaround from using Ron Michaelson dressed as a drag queen to sell subprime and teaser rate products.

In Today's market, TIME magazine can introduce self-loathing and say that it is good news that home values were going down, because you deserve it for being greedy.

Nothing like a dose of unbridled socialism from the media. This will help you realize that wanting your home value to go up is a bad thing. Is having home equity something for which you should feel guilt and offer an apology to future generations? Only the next time capsule will show how ridiculous that notion is.

Posted by Rory at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Virginia Way Laguna Beach

• Panoramic unobstructed views


• Ocean Views on all levels


• Catalina Sunsets and Whitewater Views


• This Home is beautifully upgraded


• Private Gate


• Just Across the Street from 1000 Steps County Beach.


• 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms


• New maple kitchen & slab granite countertops


• Master suite with new slab travertine


• New ceramic tile, New carpet, New interior & exterior paint.


• 2 Fireplaces, Deck for entertaining


• Seperate Entrance for Guest/Studio Apartment It's own Bedroom, Bathroom, Den, & Kitchen Also Upgraded

Posted by Rory at 1:14 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

After analysts on CNBC spent the better part of 2 weeks debating when the FED will decide to cut the FED Funds Rate the Dow fell more than 280 points today. The FED chairman Ben Bernake sites fear of inflation as a reason for not cutting rates at this time. Today's market correction could be indicative that the corner has turned in the market momentum. One analyst said that the previous low must be tested in order to ensure that the entire correction is complete.

For the FED to lower rates now would be a disservice to the correction though it would have an almost immediate effect on the housing market.

When the FED meets in September that is much more the line in the sand where they must lower rates.

Posted by Rory at 8:54 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Why is it that qualified people refuse to buy when the market favors them?

Robert Kiyosaki, "The Reason the Rich get Richer is because they play by a different set of rules."
Barbara Corcoran, "Where there's confusion, there are always bargains".

5) Lack of pressure/momentum creates doubt, when in fact it should be a green light. Remember the so-called hot market of 3-4 years ago? The thing that made it a hot market was that the home sellers had a huge advantage. That huge advantage created an emergency panic to buy homes.

4) 80%-90% of investors and second home buyers follow the wisdom or the folly of the masses. In this case the foolish thing that people say is not to buy when the buyer in fact has the advantage.
"If fifty million people say a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing." -- Anatole France

3) Real Estate Maven Barbara Corcoran, says, "Where there is confusion there are always bargains." Her statement exactly echoes Warren Buffett who said that all of the chaos is a sign of good deals.



2) The media won't tell you if and when you are getting a good deal, so what will? RESEARCH. Ensure that you are getting a good price by finding the market price and underbidding it. This is where you make your real estate agent earn their worth, and this is something into which you should put a significant amount of time and effort.

1) Realize that prices don't adjust as rapidly in premium areas. Starter homes and the middle market will be most susceptible to overpricing and finding deals. Don't try to apply the same rules across the board or across all price bands.

Finally ask yourself, are you playing by the rules that keep you one of the have nots? Or are you going to do as Kiyosaki suggests and play by a different set of rules?

Posted by Rory at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I worked in the technology industry as a software developer when the dot-com bust happened. My company survived because it was already in business long before the dot com trend, and it didn't require venture capital. That company also was able to generate a profit unlike the dot coms. The company survived and so did I.

The dot com bust resembles the sub prime tsunami because it represents the house of cards within the real estate industry. For the borrowers who understood what they were getting into, I suspect that many lenders sweet talked them into over extending themselves. Remeber the promise you made yourself? I'll get into this house now, and I'll refinance later when I start to see rates go up. (I know that adjustable rate lending can be risky, but I promise myself to fix that later).




How about the growing trend and rush to control global warming? After the oil industry and the energy companies dump tons of time and money into things that don't pan out (read ethanol). Won't the energy industries then also provide investment opportunities and technologies that represent a house of cards?

Posted by Rory at 8:21 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Here is the useful site of the day:
Someone took the real estate rss feeds from craigslist, and put them into google maps with geocoding:

Housing maps:
Orange county craigslist and maps mashup

Posted by Rory at 7:32 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

What do you think of when you hear these terms?
Crystal Cove, Headlands, Custom Homes, Ocean View....

The OC Register has a name for it, "Sand Rush".

This description is indicative of the limited availability of coastal home building space, and limited number of coastal homes. Here in Orange County, there is not only the inland luxury market that still attracts people to places like Coto de Caza and Nellie Gail Ranch, but the one crown jewel of the Orange County market are the coastal homes.

The coastal luxury market is like a giant bridge that brings us from one market to the next.
While Wall Street, local and national lenders get sorted through the Sub prime Tsunami, the coastal luxury market will still be going, full steam.

Why?
Because typically people buying homes in the 10-25 Million dollar range aren't going to rely on Countrywide for their capital, so the whole discussion of mortgage fallout is a non-sequitur.

For everyone else, the market is cyclical. What goes up must come down, but it also goes up again. That is why a cycle is different than a bubble. The word bubble implies that once there is a pop, there is nothing left.

In the meantime John Lockwood in Sacramento gives great advice of how to strategically weather the lender storm.

Posted by Rory at 7:31 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Take a Deep Breath, Countrywide isn't Chrysler

Fed drops the discount rate 1/2 point at Rain City Guide

Mortgage mess creates lending drought.

Proof that Countrywide is just fine: A Billion Here, A Billion There


How to pay off your subprime mortgage.

Plus funny real estate agent "code words"

Posted by Rory at 8:10 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Was a LOUD Thud.


You know it's bad when:

The head of a failed mortgage company goes into the Laguna Niguel branch of Countrywide to cash out.
Countrywide draws down its entire 11.5 billion credit line.
Countrywide stock yesterday was at $18.95, and it was at $42.45 at the start of the year.

Finally, had the FED not stepped in with a 1/2 point discount rate cut, the analysts at CNBC predicted the stock market to possibly plunge as much as 1000 points today.



Warren Buffett says that now is a great time to invest because "all of the chaos" is a sign that things are incorrectly priced, and there are deals to be made.

Posted by Rory at 6:55 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Over the last weekend, many of the agents in our office were in a real estate seminar in Palm Springs, along with our CEO, Steve Rodgers.

In the midst of the seminar, one of our Prudential agents was faced with an imploding escrow because his buyers suddenly could not get financing. Why? The recent tightening in lending had the lender (who shall remain nameless) backing out of the deal THE DAY BEFORE CLOSE OF ESCROW.

Our agent put the situation to our lender Jim Olmstead with First Capital.

Jim walked over Steve Rodgers CEO of Prudential California Realty
who immediately left Palm Springs and drove to Irvine.

Steve called Ron Peltier CEO, Home Services of America



Who then called Warren Buffett:

Suddenly these distressed borrowers had funding and could close escrow. For us, Warren isn't just a far away talking head living in Omaha, he has a real impact on the ground level of our business.

If this story sounds familiar, you might recall the post 5 Degrees of Warren Buffett

It really does make a huge difference to have the backing of Berkshire Hathaway the way Prudential California Realty

Posted by Rory at 8:28 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Flipping Out Star Jeff Lewis Lost Money Flipping His First House in Orange County.

Posted by Rory at 7:30 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

If you were holding your breath and wondering if the government was going to help you make your house payment with a bailout you might pass out from a lack of oxygen.

For those wondering when and if a mortgage bailout will come, here is some surprising and startling news. The FED liquidity injections are the bailout. The next best thing that they can do is a rate cut, but they have a classic pattern of coming late with the solution.

Far be it from me to tell Ben Bernake how to do his job, because international finance is bigger than just the local housing market. How about the thousands upon thousands of people whose mortgage payments are on the upswing?

Posted by Rory at 8:51 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Client: I would like to buy a home by the beach.

Me: If you are going to borrow money, you should get a rate locked in soon because your purchase power is weakening.

Client: My purchase power is fine, I don't need a rate lock, I don't care about getting a loan. I make more money than I intend to spend, now let's go find that house.

Just because subprime loans were ugly:


that doesn't have anything to do with the high-end market that will move at it's own pace:

Posted by Rory at 9:10 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

It seems that Ben Bernake has taken full control of the FED, in globetrotter's style. As usual, fear is the controlling factor, in this case, fear of inflation prevents the FED from making a rate cut, as it is currently desperately needed.

So instead of anticipating the effect of the housing market slow down, and reacting to avoid it. Bernake is all set to exacerbate the current conditions by doing nothing.

How long will it be until the needs of the middle of the housing market impact wall street? The answer to that questions points to the next time to expect a rate cut.

For further reading: Is Everything Going To Hell In A Hand Basket? Will Lassie Save Timmy? And Other Questions

Posted by Rory at 3:16 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I realized that many of the people that I met in Bear Brand Ridge, didn't realize that there are several parts to the Bear Brand communities in Laguna Niguel.

Bear Brand Ranch, 1 entrance off of Camino Del Avion, the other is off of Old Ranch Road. These homes are estates, and recently this was the location of the highest priced listing in Laguna Niguel. Bear Brand Ranch is Guard Gated.

Bear Brand Ridge, is a gated community of single family homes that are very nice in size and construction. The prices in Bear Brand Ridge currently run the span from the high 800s to the 1.8 Million range. Bear Brand Ridge is comprised of 3 builders, J.M. Peters, Warmington, and Seadrift.

Cameray Pointe is officially a Bear Brand development of well designed townhomes that have a nice flair. This community is also gated.

Ocean Ranch is across Golden Lantern from these developments. Ocean Ranch has perhaps the most impressive entrance to any community in Laguna Niguel. Ocean Ranch has 8 custom and semi-custom floorplans. Ocean Ranch also has a somewhat exclusive aura with the Ocean Ranch Executive series. Both of the gates into Ocean Ranch are guard gated.

So now when people getting to know the area hear that someone lives in Bear Brand, they will know that that can mean a variety of different communities all under the Bear Brand umbrella.

Posted by Rory at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The orange county register had the lowdown on the new 24 Hour Fitness Andre Agassi locale grand opening yesterday. This new 24 Hour Fitness is located off of Aliso Creek & La Paz.

Apparently, this Andre Agassi location respects the "tennis tradition of Orange County." Agassi himself was able to make it to sign autographs.